AI · resolved market
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29ffc00ed56b26d511b9f5008bf8836b212dd3d9133757366691bbd2d8972780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,239$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 762.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 68c | 565.33$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 509.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 407.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked Yes | 12c | 340.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 32c | 310.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 291$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…e93dbacked Yes | 18c | 277.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 6c | 211.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 208.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 32c | 181.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 170.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 63c | 148$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…50b5backed Yes | 36c | 146.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 73c | 92.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 34c | 58.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 50.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a292backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 43.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 30.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…73e1backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…b139backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…00e3backed Yes | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 59c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.