AI · resolved market
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x126633028f9a939c9ff28c9d05baf3ac5c6016fb9fb4f10d78e846fb30005799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 18c | 1,690$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 69c | 979.09$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.95 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 62c | 835.97$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.39 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 678.58$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 66c | 593.95$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.17 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 70c | 592.4$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 73c | 261.73$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked No | 59c | 249.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 64c | 229.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…50b5backed Yes | 59c | 202.31$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 14c | 177.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +103%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 7c | 174.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.93 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 43c | 157.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 13c | 137.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked No | 65c | 136.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 64c | 129.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 123.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 35c | 112.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 111.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed No | 63c | 108$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 57c | 97.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 72c | 96.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 18c | 87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 86.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 58c | 77.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 56c | 73.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 57c | 71.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 24c | 53.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 44c | 51.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…3dc1backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…2712backed Yes | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 32c | 32.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 45c | 29.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 61c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.