Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5766ba73a8e4f23e7537badcf986636b5e891feb53e25fb707559a3d450698c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63ed…d2aabacked Yes | 2c | 4,064$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 55c | 1,602$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.78 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 47c | 1,581$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 54c | 1,150$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.35 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 48c | 999.97$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 38c | 981.16$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.6 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 49c | 886.06$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 61c | 797.62$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.89 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…4393backed No | 52c | 773.16$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…c927backed Yes | 2c | 653.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 60c | 645$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 2c | 614.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 23c | 575.86$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 562.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 60c | 469.05$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.08 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 50c | 467.76$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.6 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 68c | 443.96$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.78 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 36c | 437.52$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 77c | 370$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 344.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 43c | 309.32$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.32 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed No | 74c | 305.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 68c | 301.89$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 22c | 296.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.41 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…6b22backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…42dcbacked No | 77c | 143.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 46c | 137.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 120.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 41c | 110.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…515fbacked No | 42c | 108.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 63c | 103$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b5…5902backed No | 69c | 98.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 95.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61eb…6aa7backed No | 45c | 86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +171.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 84.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…7159backed Yes | 75c | 79.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 49c | 74.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 69.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed No | 71c | 55.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 53.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…1c69backed No | 66c | 51.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 70c | 47.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39cf…21cdbacked No | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…da0dbacked No | 56c | 45.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4b50backed Yes | 79c | 44.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 38c | 43.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 74c | 37.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…1396backed No | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…7302backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…1ec9backed Yes | 36c | 29.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…8581backed No | 68c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…1020backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 9-12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.