Ukraine · resolved market
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0ff494be3fb82cba548af9352efa8ea365ab987662ab419aff68cff7fd5c1d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 27c | 1,500$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,376$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.19 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 21c | 994.3$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 874.39$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 78c | 689.72$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…427cbacked No | 73c | 656.15$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 75c | 534.27$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 32c | 450.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 80c | 424.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…f3d6backed No | 62c | 413.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…6eacbacked No | 64c | 379$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 16c | 373.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…828abacked Yes | 43c | 364.39$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 359.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…e92fbacked No | 77c | 341.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 60c | 334.42$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 34c | 323.26$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.42 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 64c | 320.88$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 67c | 311.47$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 66c | 290.47$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…d2cfbacked Yes | 14c | 282.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 30c | 278.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 7c | 274.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…33a1backed Yes | 40c | 250.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 240.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 25c | 233.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 218.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…a091backed Yes | 9c | 215.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 14c | 212.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…1e84backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 18c | 175.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 175.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed Yes | 39c | 161.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 152.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 75c | 141.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 71c | 141.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 52c | 140.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes | 14c | 130.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…fd04backed Yes | 20c | 127.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 120.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes | 40c | 116.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…a0eebacked No | 63c | 113.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 97.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc572…66fdbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 23c | 74.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c4…8f2ebacked Yes | 40c | 74.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a20…6d19backed No | 72c | 69.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…dcd8backed Yes | 48c | 64.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 63.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked No | 66c | 59.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…c8a4backed No | 35c | 55.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7d…6746backed Yes | 58c | 54.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…c95cbacked No | 63c | 49.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…33b0backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…be79backed Yes | 62c | 48.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 41c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 46.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 35c | 42.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…121cbacked Yes | 25c | 42.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 36c | 42.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…be12backed No | 70c | 38.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…08efbacked No | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…31babacked Yes | 56c | 35.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes | 35c | 35.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…9956backed Yes | 65c | 30.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 27.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…281fbacked Yes | 62c | 20.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…5382backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…b9c5backed No | 70c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.