Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Thien Ho advance from the CA-06 primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd54a7c3af7badf4d298ee4dec70281514bf93a6da7168e2282fdf5cae254a4a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 29c | 130.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 70c | 126.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 53c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…8c7bbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 69c | 53.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…2707backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Thien Ho advance from the CA-06 primary election?this page
- Will Kevin Kiley advance from the CA-06 primary election?Yes won
- Will Lauren Babb Tomlinson advance from the CA-06 primary election?No won
- Will Martha Guerrero advance from the CA-06 primary election?No won
- Will Michael Stansfield advance from the CA-06 primary election?No won
- Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election?Yes won
- Will Tyler Vandenberg advance from the CA-06 primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.