Token Launches · resolved market
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa45d1b80185c502c8412d0304adb83b053556ac349953d240a4c2761de1d0e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 74c | 1,715$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.78 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 51c | 1,307$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.98 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 862.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed Yes | 24c | 777$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 29c | 555.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 538.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked No | 80c | 256.31$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 7c | 219.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 33c | 214.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 187.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…97cbbacked No | 65c | 38.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b68…f1f0backed No | 40c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.