Token Launches · resolved market
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d64e4b8d56b5cea5173c34d3d61d54e4da7dddcd077c17445804812eede53b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 63c | 4,411$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.14 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 13c | 4,304$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,732.33 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 4c | 3,409$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 2c | 2,013$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed No | 13c | 1,827$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.08 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,599$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 58c | 1,132$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.6 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 7c | 807.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.13 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…6086backed Yes | 80c | 800$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 7c | 733.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 688.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 8c | 633.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 600.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 74c | 576.15$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…35d6backed No | 11c | 500$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +262.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked No | 11c | 309.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +306.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…68c3backed Yes | 56c | 300.06$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…68adbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 38c | 104.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 103.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed No | 56c | 89.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…ce56backed Yes | 76c | 68.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 38c | 61.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 60.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 60c | 41.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…65ebbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 54c | 30.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 41c | 29.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…3968backed No | 48c | 28.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.43per pick | 48cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 24.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 23.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $30M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the ALIGN public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.