Movies · resolved market
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc589adfd317b954b8fd645dec08a41eb3ffa08147a42b113cd8e1df7ac68d674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 1c | 1,017$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4905…0527backed No | 11c | 950.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 390$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 381.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 66c | 330$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.44 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 12c | 273$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 244.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 24c | 230.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 220.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 206.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 199.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 20c | 171.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 68c | 166.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x857b…0fd4backed Yes | 45c | 138.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…2c71backed Yes | 55c | 138.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 16c | 120.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 18c | 110.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…903ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ee…4e60backed No | 11c | 98.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 78c | 63.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 74c | 60.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…a2b1backed Yes | 20c | 60.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249d…0ad3backed Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 56c | 50.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4737…42fcbacked No | 40c | 48.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…be00backed No | 47c | 42.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…de67backed No | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…eca6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c6…9af4backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.