TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,110,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,100,459

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,110,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa791…8b9dbacked Yes37c60,537$22,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,398.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe10…2a3fbacked No63c60,537$38,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,398.693100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98ec…5251backed Yes39c57,018$22,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,237.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e4…b63bbacked No61c57,018$34,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,237.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes40c36,818$14,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,846.674628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9995…1b5cbacked Yes37c34,209$12,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,657.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9537…dc8fbacked No63c34,209$21,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,657.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29f7…c2e2backed Yes38c34,007$12,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,922.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c88…d15dbacked No62c34,007$21,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,922.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x304d…ffbfbacked Yes39c32,379$12,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,627.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e25…0575backed No61c32,379$19,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,627.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf329…d77cbacked Yes38c31,829$12,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,095.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24b…7281backed No62c31,829$19,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,095.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No60c29,782$17,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,835.677241.7%30 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e9…4ebbbacked Yes38c26,545$10,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,087.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93e…2db5backed No62c26,545$16,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,087.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes26c11,301$2,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,929.3864747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc96c…54a2backed Yes23c10,400$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,39210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c8,095$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.745679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes24c6,561$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.373923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedcc…4928backed Yes33c5,908$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes33c5,842$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.1720238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd914…4ac4backed No59c4,916$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.971145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes11c4,634$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c4,125$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.73674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes14c4,043$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.122434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes42c3,856$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.125536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5b…e0d3backed No77c3,600$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe136…daa3backed No67c3,525$2,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedde…8fcbbacked No77c3,500$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…63e6backed Yes32c3,500$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…2decbacked Yes30c3,436$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…0283backed Yes15c3,348$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7f…5c6fbacked No77c3,300$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked No64c3,060$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.13548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8399…49f9backed Yes31c2,859$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd701…55c3backed Yes30c2,832$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0b…15ecbacked No69c2,647$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e0…c44abacked No69c2,626$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49a…36ccbacked Yes41c2,598$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed No78c2,594$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.513271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb510…7d9cbacked No67c2,530$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c4…cfccbacked No67c2,386$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No68c2,250$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.4583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc5…4f35backed No68c2,199$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa573…8553backed No70c2,129$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4592…77aebacked Yes26c2,120$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.621020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,061$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.45611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Yes37c1,987$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.4816545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca6…1e2cbacked No80c1,904$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x693a…5cd3backed No71c1,897$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes30c1,873$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.381010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-86.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1968…53f4backed No68c1,846$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c4…6f82backed Yes32c1,838$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7c…69a7backed Yes26c1,816$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed Yes38c1,807$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6808247.6%39 W · 43 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b98…6e72backed No69c1,744$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe08e…9d2fbacked No69c1,737$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…ca83backed Yes34c1,671$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x844a…04cbbacked Yes31c1,655$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No64c1,546$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.311266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0528…87cbbacked Yes31c1,546$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes33c1,536$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes23c1,527$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.38454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes44c1,442$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.781833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5e…e401backed Yes33c1,438$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8600…a6f2backed No71c1,282$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f9…8f32backed Yes29c1,280$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd08…e0a5backed Yes29c1,275$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c61…6f9ebacked Yes27c1,272$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e9…5c13backed No72c1,264$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7e…a74abacked No73c1,255$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c3…9d95backed No74c1,255$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ab…47f1backed No75c1,218$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7546…a762backed Yes25c1,218$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf571…c67ebacked Yes26c1,212$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9569…5633backed Yes27c1,206$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…6721backed No74c1,198$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No63c1,181$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.6652828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes39c1,165$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.6813217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes47c1,162$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.32520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6635…3eeebacked Yes29c1,150$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968c…2c91backed No68c1,095$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e94…13d6backed No69c1,088$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d6…1759backed Yes30c1,063$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed No53c1,060$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.289754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No64c1,039$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+54%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x648c…d256backed No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+3,225.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes23c999.97$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.994341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf8…6bdbbacked No70c992$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes37c984.74$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.351,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ee…7127backed Yes31c966$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes37c958.36$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.5918629.6%55 W · 131 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304c…9c6abacked Yes37c945.95$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes18c927.57$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.283231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No71c890.7$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.992147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No73c888$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.22548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No74c886.04$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.591127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick62cpaid-57.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x71de…67c9backed No69c862$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.