TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,787
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,787 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c5f…b5bbbacked Yes28c13,658$3,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,863.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No75c8,656$6,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd24…22f3backed Yes27c8,458$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed No78c4,759$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.71050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c4,752$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.8214729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe62b…3ab1backed Yes24c4,317$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed Yes23c3,750$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8531040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c3,350$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.66260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No74c3,276$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.463743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes36c2,662$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x298a…dea8backed Yes13c2,624$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No79c2,096$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.463237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c2,076$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.819035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No71c2,054$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.542646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Yes29c1,746$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfa…b608backed Yes23c1,710$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc43a…d493backed Yes26c1,702$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Yes16c1,553$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.351618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a1…35edbacked Yes23c1,536$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes19c1,530$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5113625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes23c1,200$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2761127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes25c1,184$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b58…81b7backed Yes21c1,164$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No75c1,161$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3410739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c1,021$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.8318237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c999.99$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3331534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No75c975.25$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.823836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No77c973.36$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.446141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes17c926.55$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.558638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7b…eee7backed Yes20c924.08$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No74c921.63$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.83345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No71c838.27$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.9710245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0d…fa97backed No78c790.5$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.311145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c726$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.6612049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No80c704.6$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.941926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes20c699.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1372536%9 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c694.94$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.8310340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe708…4345backed No74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2932…3ae8backed Yes24c653.17$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No71c644$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.766636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe153…d9e8backed Yes21c600.43$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3908…fe4fbacked Yes24c592.75$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No60c509.69$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.881457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No67c507.9$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8515445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc6…cf7bbacked Yes20c505.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No80c504.03$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c489.35$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No78c485$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.39343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No77c482.47$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.499647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes29c419.82$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.82137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick31cpaid-88.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed No76c415.38$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No72c407.64$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1510740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3289…18bbbacked Yes24c393.96$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No73c392.26$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3510048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No74c369.83$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.444032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No71c337.64$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1815431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No77c322.47$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.433046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c322$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9110947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes33c300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No60c281.8$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.784850%24 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c278.82$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1612545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes18c257.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.28128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked No78c250$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.853100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No78c225.15$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.535100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes22c220$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.46311.1%7 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No58c219.87$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.697352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb185…c857backed Yes23c214.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+126.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…8051backed Yes25c208$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c203.36$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0249511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c201.34$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.717451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.617140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6416544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4224433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3602…d943backed Yes23c195.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No69c191.47$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.297437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c66…76cdbacked Yes21c190.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No75c190$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.53855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No77c184$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.538740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2161…a6bbbacked Yes19c179.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3c…ba6abacked Yes16c175$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2710…54a3backed Yes24c169.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c36…207dbacked Yes28c164.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-73.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No76c158$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.921060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes14c154.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c146$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8945035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39bf…bda8backed Yes21c144.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c132$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9413143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No76c130$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d9…a4e5backed No73c127.4$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256826.5%18 W · 50 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No65c125$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.254156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No75c123.22$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.793452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No61c120$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.810034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked No75c119.8$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No75c116.67$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4324831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes12c115$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.822833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9c…8927backed No79c109$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.89366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x686d…1a68backed Yes19c102.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204537.8%17 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.