TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,377,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,562,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,377,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes0c200,000$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691f…41a1backed Yes6c136,353$8,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,738.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc247…4a5cbacked Yes2c79,453$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes2c42,800$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc1…983abacked Yes4c41,000$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Yes7c37,331$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9be…13c7backed Yes3c30,669$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3180…7dfebacked Yes1c25,983$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5895…88b7backed Yes7c23,185$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e6…5aaabacked Yes2c13,924$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked Yes1c12,982$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f8…9befbacked Yes2c11,018$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…904abacked Yes2c10,018$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes5c10,000$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.998821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes5c9,704$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.24128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-83.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0b4…9f3dbacked Yes2c9,200$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes2c8,334$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.349822.4%22 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes4c8,243$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.373614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes4c7,650$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3510533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c7,474$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.413826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes2c6,233$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.18166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e67…c256backed Yes5c6,209$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c6,135$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.736883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes3c5,644$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.475121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb22f…88e7backed Yes6c5,256$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes7c5,132$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6cf…61d2backed Yes1c4,859$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes4c4,162$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.853023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes3c4,150$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.864748.9%23 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+74.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes6c3,906$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.014440.9%18 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes6c3,842$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.542958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes7c3,574$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes7c3,055$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb60…3ddabacked Yes6c2,864$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e4…04b2backed Yes1c2,844$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c2,679$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.484766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b29…4d85backed Yes2c2,619$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes4c2,617$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9530233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52a1…17afbacked Yes1c2,556$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c92…7396backed Yes8c2,546$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbe7…254cbacked Yes5c2,467$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bc…e452backed Yes4c2,279$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc35…aba4backed Yes4c2,264$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baf…d24abacked Yes1c2,238$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242c…1c75backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3495…b2a6backed Yes5c2,128$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…9f9ebacked Yes2c2,105$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8964…ed67backed Yes3c2,055$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes4c2,053$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3619237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes6c2,000$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ea…b38bbacked Yes6c2,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes7c2,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b4c…b2e4backed Yes5c1,970$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc23…4387backed Yes5c1,604$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes5c1,576$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.331711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf2…9075backed Yes6c1,443$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ff…f464backed Yes2c1,414$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fea…c2f7backed Yes7c1,414$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa217…603abacked Yes4c1,378$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b6…d90cbacked Yes2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813c…6f03backed Yes6c1,216$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9780…6255backed Yes6c1,077$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes4c1,058$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.493818.4%7 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1172…cbb1backed Yes2c1,055$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae64…aca9backed Yes2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e7…9d9dbacked Yes2c1,048$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b7…2604backed Yes5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes5c1,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c3…885fbacked Yes7c996.48$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes3c900$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.584334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c36…207dbacked Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d6…4da7backed Yes5c774.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210b…bb94backed Yes4c757.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes4c749.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.325317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c743.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb364…0148backed Yes3c742.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0907…fa3ebacked Yes6c724.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cf…7a97backed Yes7c711.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06db…35f5backed Yes14c707.14$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x580b…f0f4backed Yes3c678.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c666.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.871494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes4c662.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.515626.8%15 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e5…ace5backed Yes3c609.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes7c600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…90f7backed Yes7c572.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a5…43d3backed Yes4c556.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc86b…1d72backed Yes2c550$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ff…617bbacked Yes4c530.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.56927.5%19 W · 50 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…c7c3backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…d91ebacked Yes9c489.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes5c476.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8911222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3db…2467backed Yes7c472$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.14120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…3bdbbacked Yes6c409.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes3c379.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…f79dbacked Yes7c363.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05be…c288backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.