World Politics · resolved market
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a275bccfc2f3f09731fcde02291d06673d7540cbb120ddd0a56ae7a39ef0e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,785,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,206,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,785,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd46e…904abacked No | 1c | 177,642$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…41a1backed No | 7c | 59,523$3,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 0c | 50,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 2c | 30,894$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked No | 4c | 27,063$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.32 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 7c | 24,295$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 2c | 18,227$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.51 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 6c | 18,126$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.63 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 5c | 15,903$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 14,609$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 13,830$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.47 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 2c | 12,585$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.12 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…13c7backed No | 5c | 10,807$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 2c | 10,622$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 4c | 9,446$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.22 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 3c | 9,419$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.27 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 5c | 8,971$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.43 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 5c | 8,829$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 3c | 8,201$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.61 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…9d9dbacked No | 2c | 7,001$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 6c | 5,489$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…c256backed No | 7c | 4,188$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…ed67backed No | 3c | 3,828$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 4c | 3,652$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 4c | 2,986$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…341bbacked No | 5c | 2,968$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 2,531$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 4c | 2,312$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed No | 6c | 2,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked No | 3c | 1,860$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 4c | 1,661$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 4c | 1,607$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed No | 1c | 1,504$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…6663backed No | 5c | 1,466$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 2c | 1,436$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…ece3backed No | 7c | 1,405$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…532dbacked No | 3c | 1,398$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed No | 4c | 1,301$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 1,201$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…f6e7backed No | 2c | 1,168$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked No | 7c | 1,166$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…f79dbacked No | 4c | 1,092$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 5c | 1,073$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 6c | 1,014$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…5c50backed No | 1c | 989.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554c…7156backed No | 4c | 881.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…04f7backed No | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 5c | 771$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed No | 15c | 750.3$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…14edbacked No | 2c | 713.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4521…4e6cbacked No | 2c | 693.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked No | 2c | 690.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…fd6ebacked No | 15c | 687.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 5c | 652.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…298ebacked No | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…ba62backed No | 4c | 606.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…d91ebacked No | 9c | 557.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…9f30backed No | 4c | 525.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…578cbacked No | 4c | 500.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 7c | 496.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…2a38backed No | 7c | 384.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cd…99b5backed No | 4c | 374.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4576…edffbacked No | 3c | 321.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721f…59ffbacked No | 8c | 250.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 13c | 176.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed No | 6c | 176.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b59…1cafbacked No | 7c | 168.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025this page
- Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.