Champions League · resolved market
RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid: 4+ Goals Scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1338348a579d040de92a35fd2c4aabf907d160f5189989253dbf513606ac1ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 50c | 14,432$7,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,215.39 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 52c | 14,269$7,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,416.05 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 50c | 10,323$5,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,181.45 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,042$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.68 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 42c | 1,712$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.68 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 48c | 1,403$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.56 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 48c | 1,321$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.81 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 51c | 1,007$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.63 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 50c | 1,000$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.24 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 59c | 806$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 30c | 622.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked No | 50c | 556.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.92 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed No | 67c | 528.71$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.61 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Yes | 48c | 513.14$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 15c | 510$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Yes | 49c | 499.57$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.19 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…3378backed Yes | 50c | 461$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…cfc1backed Yes | 47c | 422.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…1746backed Yes | 52c | 384.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed No | 48c | 342.65$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Yes | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c35…3702backed Yes | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 51c | 270.88$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…d723backed No | 49c | 206.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…41e9backed Yes | 51c | 203.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Yes | 49c | 194.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked No | 51c | 193.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 52c | 192.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed No | 46c | 178.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed No | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed No | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…979cbacked No | 51c | 125.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Yes | 49c | 122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 50c | 102.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…d8abbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…f39bbacked No | 52c | 82.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…e309backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…500abacked No | 58c | 79.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed No | 49c | 71.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32d…806ebacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…6255backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 34c | 40.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed No | 49c | 36.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a22bbacked No | 51c | 36.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcedb…8eccbacked No | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…1b96backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec9…be9dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…6b01backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd197…9991backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.