NBA · resolved market
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51108978b5a3adc39880b4918bcba868a13ee546d7f7fff0acdc0ab97ac6d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,601,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,123,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,601,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 358,479$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.48 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Yes | 0c | 199,998$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Yes | 0c | 81,312$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.23 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 0c | 67,843$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 65,223$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1c0dbacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 44,639$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,217$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 27,604$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 0c | 14,456$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 12,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…a7fabacked Yes | 1c | 10,815$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,520$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 2c | 8,900$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.62 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,705$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…c036backed Yes | 0c | 4,876$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 73 | 0%0 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,823$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 4,354$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…ca19backed Yes | 4c | 3,700$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +310.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…42f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,868$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea4…703bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,715$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +444%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 1c | 2,613$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…7c3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,642$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…8d9cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 1,490$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 58 | 6.9%4 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2178backed Yes | 1c | 1,198$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,052$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…2614backed Yes | 1c | 1,051$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c29…09e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…bce6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…d1c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…4c43backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Yes | 2c | 998.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +300.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 986.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…778cbacked Yes | 2c | 925.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 3c | 884.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…9408backed Yes | 1c | 785.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…7302backed Yes | 3c | 693$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98f…7384backed Yes | 3c | 629.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…cb81backed Yes | 3c | 613.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…8f2abacked Yes | 2c | 479.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…7829backed Yes | 3c | 419$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…ac3fbacked Yes | 3c | 402$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df5…90fdbacked Yes | 3c | 394.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…507ebacked Yes | 3c | 385.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference?this page
- Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference?Yes won
- Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference?No won
- Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.