Middle East · resolved market
Iranian coup attempt before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6325ce395c65c0913a70b2f78f4d9e83de29714ad785b882f84c1f62a2eaba65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,127$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800c…e4c6backed Yes | 3c | 4,797$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 10c | 3,972$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e2…6808backed Yes | 13c | 2,880$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,388$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,337$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.54 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 1,780$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 12c | 1,650$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,201$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 5c | 1,195$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…4ee4backed Yes | 12c | 950$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 844.03$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 4c | 799.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…1d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 574.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 6c | 524.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 480$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 399.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf7…779bbacked Yes | 10c | 378.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa53…96f7backed Yes | 14c | 378.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 78c | 304.92$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 296.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 289.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…ae0fbacked Yes | 8c | 271.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…23fabacked Yes | 6c | 230.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…c901backed Yes | 10c | 196.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…7542backed Yes | 14c | 182.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 139$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e2bfbacked Yes | 15c | 137.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 20c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.