Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae2af508edf99fafbb1c387b726ec843a33c8a1d5c42bea6cb768041a1adea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 5c | 1,811$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 7c | 1,177$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 1c | 1,112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 25c | 1,082$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.25 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…a984backed No | 7c | 1,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 993.68$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 49c | 797.86$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.75 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked No | 78c | 757.82$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 750.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 43c | 715.14$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.79 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 680.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 6c | 641.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 37c | 595.01$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.56 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 17c | 533.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.31 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 42c | 506.63$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 49c | 483.58$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.31 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 465.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 79c | 450.36$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 399.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 17c | 378.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.59 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 337.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 10c | 301.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.66 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 293.28$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 10c | 287.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.97 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 46c | 264.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 14c | 263.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.75 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 55c | 255$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 55c | 253.69$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 30c | 244.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 225.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 44c | 214.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 74c | 214.12$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed No | 62c | 199.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 188.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…0e08backed Yes | 61c | 184$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 26c | 182.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 44c | 180.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 45c | 176$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 161.51$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 50c | 159.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a105backed No | 67c | 153.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 13c | 152$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 17c | 151.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed No | 74c | 149.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 52c | 144.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 38c | 142.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 12c | 130.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 120.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 119.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 33c | 115.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 38c | 114.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 108.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 108.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 26c | 100.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 60c | 98.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 30c | 96.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 41c | 91.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…a04bbacked No | 46c | 85.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 82.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 14c | 80.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…818abacked Yes | 27c | 79.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed No | 47c | 79.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 40c | 77.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b8…b518backed Yes | 25c | 76.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 75.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 73.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 72c | 69.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 37c | 68.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 45c | 63.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 57c | 62.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 59.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 58.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 56.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 72c | 54.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 53.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b73…b9eebacked Yes | 57c | 53.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 54c | 53.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…376bbacked Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 48.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…95e3backed Yes | 40c | 47.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…ad7dbacked No | 29c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked No | 67c | 44.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 27c | 41.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 57c | 40.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 35c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 34.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 32.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.