Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ed51aaffd592be6b6adc89464662676427876bccd7e53d0874b608388301b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 9c | 2,004$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 45c | 1,585$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.81 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked No | 73c | 822.84$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.71 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 6c | 791.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 10c | 765.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 61c | 577.26$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 444.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 433.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 428.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 78c | 396.49$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 395.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 334.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 5c | 329.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 311.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…1594backed Yes | 16c | 292$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…818abacked Yes | 12c | 277.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 20c | 250.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 248.7$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 56c | 238.37$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 47c | 231.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 213.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 207.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 205.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 66c | 195.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 49c | 192.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 36c | 186.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 60c | 168.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 35c | 166.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 166.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 24c | 158.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 12c | 147.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 30c | 142.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 47c | 135.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 57c | 133.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 14c | 131.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 130.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 24c | 127.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 127.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 63c | 125.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes | 27c | 123.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 120.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 43c | 119.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 11c | 113.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 53c | 105.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed Yes | 62c | 99.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 65c | 98.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 96.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 92.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 30c | 91.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 89.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 43c | 87.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 55c | 87.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 87.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 85.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 19c | 84.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 81.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 67c | 73.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 62c | 70.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 28c | 70.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 61c | 69.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…06c5backed Yes | 30c | 65.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 30c | 65.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 64.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 42c | 62.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 62c | 61.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 41c | 61.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 57.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 56.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 21c | 53.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 26c | 50.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 62c | 49.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 23c | 48.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 25c | 47.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 44.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb00…1942backed Yes | 43c | 43.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 31c | 43.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 42c | 42.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed No | 48c | 41.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 52c | 40.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 47c | 40.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 39.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 75c | 38.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 38.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 50c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 37c | 34.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 47c | 34.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 37c | 34.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 78c | 33.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 76c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.