Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc473b000c4aa9bbfd54b3224d64a61c895cc466e1b267c282116293004c661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 3c | 1,160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 52c | 747.99$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.79 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 5c | 602.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 467.12$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 49c | 398.43$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.42 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 374.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…d68ebacked No | 66c | 316.48$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 310.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 303.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 44c | 289.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 42c | 284.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 232.82$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 42c | 225.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 224.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 45c | 221.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 207.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 206.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 58c | 205.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 202.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 28c | 197.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 189.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 47c | 189.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 188$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 181.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 49c | 151.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 45c | 140.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 130.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 128.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 45c | 126.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 121.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 121.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 36c | 119.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 29c | 115.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 64c | 113.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 32c | 90.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 90.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 52c | 87.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 30c | 80.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 74.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 29c | 73.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aad…d9eebacked Yes | 33c | 69.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 66.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 57c | 66.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2dd4backed Yes | 29c | 65.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 20c | 65.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 54c | 61.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 62c | 61.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 21c | 59.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 56c | 58.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 51.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 30c | 51.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed Yes | 38c | 49.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 30c | 46.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 43c | 45.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed No | 50c | 44.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 42c | 43.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 41.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…d4b0backed Yes | 44c | 41.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 57c | 41.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 36c | 40.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145c…3de8backed Yes | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 74c | 40.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 43c | 39.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 70c | 39.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 50c | 39.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 38.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed No | 61c | 36.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 36.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 71c | 35.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…a04bbacked No | 55c | 34.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 61c | 33.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…62b7backed No | 54c | 33.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed No | 55c | 31.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 31.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…98f8backed No | 56c | 30.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 38c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 48c | 29.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 71c | 27.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 39c | 26.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 70c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.