World Politics · resolved market
Will Jara win by 3-6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dccca3d76410ce4aa43bca096d5cdc66b9dbb28274d6c6582c51984fe929250
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 49c | 2,916$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.74 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,763$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.89 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…3fddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,207$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 7c | 983$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 53c | 890.39$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.37 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 19c | 881.31$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 13c | 869.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…6ec6backed No | 62c | 807.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 4c | 745$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 17c | 573.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 24c | 568.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 437.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 4c | 412.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 3c | 381.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 21c | 375.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 11c | 339.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 265.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 220.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 50c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 129.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…ed3dbacked Yes | 76c | 127.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 13c | 124.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 16c | 115$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…d693backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…d1babacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b276backed Yes | 34c | 74.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7683…c0fbbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 50c | 33.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…45f0backed Yes | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…b449backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jara win by 3-6%?this page
- Will Jara win by 0-3%?Yes won
- Will Jara win by 12-15%?No won
- Will Jara win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Jara win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Jara win by at least 15%?No won
- Will Kast win by 0-3%?No won
- Will Kast win by 3-6%?No won
- Will another person win the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.