South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bdadb1a3c038414d05f21dcad07ddff270043f869b81a1f151497e09d57a275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,890 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 59c | 5,174$3,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.19 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 1,427$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.85 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 1,288$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.07 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 36c | 1,270$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.2 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Over | 41c | 1,090$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 41c | 1,082$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Over | 41c | 737$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.17 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 41c | 708.26$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.38 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 59c | 614.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.15 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 38c | 595.78$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 41c | 384.2$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 41c | 376.05$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 310.29$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…84b4backed Over | 41c | 297.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 274$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 64c | 156.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 137$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db0…c48ebacked Over | 42c | 121.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 114.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 74c | 103.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 12c | 91.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 41c | 88.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 41c | 83.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 41c | 78.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 41c | 75.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 61.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 66c | 60.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked Under | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 62c | 41.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5this page
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.