South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb9ea74387d5324add3911eaa0e870981a895e836d49af6c7ddb50325cd6fe30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,691 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 3,380$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.63 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 26c | 2,573$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.01 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 1,839$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.68 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 73c | 1,690$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.46 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,299$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.43 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 39c | 1,294$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 1,275$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.79 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Over | 25c | 1,189$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 73c | 819.01$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 67c | 345.61$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 27c | 229.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 30c | 220.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 202.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 200.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 188.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 74c | 171.79$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 73c | 164$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.72 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 47c | 132.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 42c | 128.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 80c | 125.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 68c | 101$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 21c | 94.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 43c | 58.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 24c | 54.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Under | 36c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 65c | 36.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 75c | 35.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 68c | 26.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 55cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Over | 74c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…2faabacked Over | 74c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…669fbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5this page
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.