Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fe27843ec4b26e46d2151758a312b84ea7d5078f2e03615dd3d5bd70feaee97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Medvedev, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,207 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x336b…1233backed Medvedev | 1c | 5,921$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Medvedev | 0c | 2,652$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 1,283$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.33 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Medvedev | 55c | 1,206$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.99 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Cerundolo | 47c | 1,056$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.83 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo | 47c | 832.51$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.11 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cerundolo | 51c | 659.3$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.31 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo | 62c | 622.84$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.25 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Cerundolo | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Medvedev | 54c | 542.66$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.53 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Medvedev | 54c | 446.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…e3c9backed Medvedev | 52c | 385.71$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.57 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Medvedev | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Cerundolo | 48c | 302.59$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 51c | 240.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…f57fbacked Medvedev | 55c | 224$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…a8adbacked Medvedev | 53c | 209.43$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Cerundolo | 52c | 192.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…5318backed Medvedev | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Cerundolo | 63c | 190.57$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cerundolo | 46c | 190.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Medvedev | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Medvedev | 54c | 185.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cerundolo | 46c | 181.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Medvedev | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 52.6%100 W · 90 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cerundolo | 45c | 138.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Cerundolo | 46c | 135$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Medvedev | 55c | 108.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Medvedev | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Medvedev | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Medvedev | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Cerundolo | 49c | 97.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Medvedev | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Medvedev | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Medvedev | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Medvedev | 55c | 91.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 58.1%126 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cerundolo | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Medvedev | 45c | 60.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d2…0af8backed Medvedev | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Medvedev | 54c | 42.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Cerundolo | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72e…656dbacked Medvedev | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Medvedev | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Medvedev | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed Medvedev | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Cerundolo vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Cerundolo vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Francisco Cerundolo vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil MedvedevFrancisco Cerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs MedvedevCerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.