Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mexico win on 2025-11-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2ef7aff5e6236e96f9a4d82198a3139e77984929997f8799ef4b289e343ffcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 1,499$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.88 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 65c | 493.98$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.59 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 23c | 287.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…fc73backed Yes | 36c | 280$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 223.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 28c | 215.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 63c | 208.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 35c | 203.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce0…a1ebbacked Yes | 21c | 197.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 18cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 175$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8279…7edcbacked Yes | 16c | 95.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 65c | 90.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 33c | 83.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 36c | 68.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 218 | 40.8%89 W · 129 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…18afbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 56.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 63c | 46.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 51.1%91 W · 87 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7b0cbacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 27.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…7d49backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed No | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico win on 2025-11-15?this page
- Will Mexico vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Uruguay win on 2025-11-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.