World Politics · resolved market
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0701bad6efa80d2739d8a0dc38a136c05429fc3a664792a0ccc1e73b82f45a56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.76 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…70abbacked Yes | 21c | 2,882$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 13c | 2,506$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.38 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 13c | 1,554$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,345$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,314$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.23 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,202$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 1,069$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 13c | 917.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…c19abacked Yes | 6c | 781.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…2217backed Yes | 33c | 748.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 7c | 726.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 77c | 716.83$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 695.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 684.87$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.26 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 11c | 680$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 7c | 649.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 9c | 644.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…6e41backed Yes | 9c | 550.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 33c | 529.74$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…f88fbacked Yes | 23c | 434.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 40c | 393$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 387.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95df…8a52backed Yes | 35c | 381.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 21c | 351$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…8297backed Yes | 25c | 346.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…e37cbacked Yes | 11c | 302.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Yes | 33c | 300.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes | 12c | 286.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 255.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…dd70backed Yes | 15c | 238$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ae…1c41backed Yes | 19c | 206.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 21c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…35a2backed Yes | 8c | 192.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…24cbbacked Yes | 6c | 175.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 17c | 170.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…60a3backed Yes | 17c | 161.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…093abacked Yes | 13c | 160.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…12dcbacked Yes | 50c | 150.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 68c | 130.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 26c | 116.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 14c | 106.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…67b7backed Yes | 24c | 104.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…f50ebacked Yes | 25c | 101.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c3…7938backed Yes | 31c | 96.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +312.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…55c1backed Yes | 11c | 94.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e0…f422backed Yes | 23c | 86.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f7…7a46backed Yes | 28c | 85.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…08b0backed Yes | 33c | 84.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70f…4e35backed No | 72c | 83.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed No | 72c | 76.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 20c | 75.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407a…d0d3backed No | 67c | 74.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…ee09backed Yes | 28c | 70.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 24c | 61.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…fdb4backed Yes | 33c | 60.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…84cabacked Yes | 33c | 60.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ba…07a2backed Yes | 37c | 54.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…d483backed Yes | 38c | 52.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…b26cbacked Yes | 33c | 45.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc486…32a9backed Yes | 27c | 44.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 43.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…c887backed Yes | 36c | 41.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…8a7dbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 65c | 39.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Union win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Democrats 66 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Denk win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the New Social Contract win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Party for the Animals win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Reformed Political Party win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Socialist Party win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Volt Netherlands win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.