Will the Democrats 66 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20bffbbcbbfca3f1254deb8850855481322095c32c8493a1eda1c237e32714ed

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $58,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,579 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9dd0…0f6abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	25c	2,284$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.7	150	26%39 W · 111 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	69c	2,202$1,525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.22	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	36c	1,645$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.53	118	53.4%63 W · 55 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	18c	1,565$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.19	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+9.9wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	23c	1,313$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.98	121	33.1%40 W · 81 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	49c	1,179$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.7	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes	36c	1,092$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.22	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	38cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x305e…e8d9backed No	64c	800$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.9wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+123.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No	76c	763.7$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.87	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	65c	639.03$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.71	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes	37c	500$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	12c	401$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.15	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No	69c	396.43$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.8	41	68.3%28 W · 13 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x084d…5bf6backed Yes	47c	380.94$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.57	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes	48c	374$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.79	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x053f…5f6dbacked Yes	38c	374$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.86	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	15c	317.06$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.27	449	21.2%95 W · 354 L	-21.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes	22c	309.32$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.27	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No	79c	300$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	68	36.8%25 W · 43 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	12c	294.83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.87	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	80c	287.64$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.62	112	22.3%25 W · 87 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	24c	273.55$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.65	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No	76c	265.57$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.25	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	41c	257.32$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.69	107	41.1%44 W · 63 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x660d…689bbacked Yes	50c	242.47$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.16	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe23…c1dcbacked Yes	35c	240$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.6	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	20cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	43c	239.67$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.56	87	16.1%14 W · 73 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…54d6backed Yes	37c	237.85$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.61	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb84…e3d1backed Yes	20c	231.8$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes	41c	229.01$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	43c	222$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.35	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x796a…b0a4backed Yes	11c	212.72$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed No	68c	203.07$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.45	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec66…f0adbacked Yes	37c	200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No	51c	199.99$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	50	44%22 W · 28 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+223.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No	56c	183.39$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.08	200	34%68 W · 132 L	+9.0wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	7c	154.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	371	17.8%66 W · 305 L	-18.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc637…c341backed Yes	37c	145.71$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed No	59c	139.26$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.26	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	66c	131.87$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.65	200	51.5%103 W · 97 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…2ebebacked Yes	27c	128.57$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed No	68c	119$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.84	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.0wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24c3…7938backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+312.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked No	66c	90$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.2	169	40.2%68 W · 101 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f7…7a46backed Yes	24c	86$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…05f5backed Yes	37c	80$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	45cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	48c	73.9$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	322	55%177 W · 145 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	38c	46.26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe693…ac1dbacked Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	50c	26.92$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.39	50	72%36 W · 14 L	+6.9wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes	41c	26.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4e…f547backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.21per pick	37cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked No	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7c3…1a70backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35d3…bd9dbacked No	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1c…d151backed No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.35per pick	32cpaid	+139.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fb0…3169backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	58c	19.16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.04	117	38.5%45 W · 72 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No	61c	19$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.41	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Democrats 66 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event