World Politics · resolved market
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd69e8cdc8fbb4afa795cf1547bd8d40f5cb23cccf6d204ef073120c252e29b58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd0…0f6abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 36c | 2,530$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.2 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd70f…4e35backed Yes | 34c | 1,451$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 32c | 1,414$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 30c | 1,107$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.89 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 26c | 1,056$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.61 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 966.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 916.36$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.72 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…5bf6backed Yes | 21c | 876.67$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 25c | 792.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95df…8a52backed Yes | 21c | 578.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 27c | 560.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae64…aca9backed Yes | 30c | 438.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 25c | 396.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…5f6dbacked Yes | 40c | 374$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 357.61$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 22c | 340.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 40c | 335.8$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.15 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…d974backed Yes | 39c | 331.62$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 70c | 329.13$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 72c | 327.61$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 28c | 322$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…cdbebacked Yes | 34c | 274.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 263.33$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 211.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…f0adbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed Yes | 32c | 187.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 20c | 171.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…a8cebacked Yes | 39c | 143.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 26c | 136.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 27c | 134.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…fdb4backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…b26cbacked Yes | 29c | 103.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…ac1dbacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 21c | 97.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed No | 77c | 86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 20c | 85.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f7…7a46backed Yes | 29c | 83.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 41c | 78.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…2032backed Yes | 31c | 75.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…bfa1backed Yes | 30c | 74.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…ae3cbacked Yes | 39c | 66.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…f547backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 42c | 64.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 24c | 56.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…cb72backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 26c | 42.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…1430backed Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9809…3416backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 62c | 34.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…833abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa95…8c72backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Union win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Democrats 66 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Denk win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the New Social Contract win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Party for the Animals win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Reformed Political Party win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Socialist Party win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Volt Netherlands win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.