World Politics · resolved market
Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b8fe781b30effcb38b391b2fb21cbff921f61d287870c57df758bdf6afe553e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd0…0f6abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,807$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 5c | 1,658$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 1,505$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 3c | 1,267$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,016$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…e096backed Yes | 8c | 641.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 5c | 444$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…9580backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…ad97backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Union win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Democrats 66 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Denk win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Forum for Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the JA21 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the New Social Contract win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Party for the Animals win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Reformed Political Party win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Socialist Party win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Volt Netherlands win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.