Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda717bb753d31b4b8e87125773bab2bcbe906d1749b64f859a0a5cc491332df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e9…bda4backed No | 1c | 8,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29e…3791backed No | 0c | 7,909$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked No | 1c | 7,894$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed No | 1c | 5,002$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 0c | 4,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4e…fcefbacked No | 23c | 3,171$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 8c | 2,633$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,459$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 1c | 1,884$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,849$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,459$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 9c | 1,458$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 4c | 1,450$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…89b3backed No | 7c | 1,128$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…ebc2backed No | 6c | 1,104$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb828…814abacked No | 8c | 1,059$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1f…d7cebacked No | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 3c | 990$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 71c | 890.47$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.18 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…6802backed No | 4c | 825$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 799.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 783$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…eef8backed No | 10c | 765.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 765.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 700$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 9c | 699.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 699.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 38c | 664.31$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.92 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 6c | 653.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked No | 8c | 599.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…ce95backed No | 6c | 575.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 74c | 510.04$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 42c | 495.61$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.61 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 474.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…69c6backed No | 10c | 473.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 68c | 473.18$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.76 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 28c | 433.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 6c | 417.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 36c | 348.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 299.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.97 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 5c | 292.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 45c | 288.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 279.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 10c | 273.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 4c | 270.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 4c | 253.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…fe47backed No | 8c | 248.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…e1d8backed Yes | 51c | 237.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 229.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 7c | 210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 67c | 207.02$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…796abacked No | 7c | 205.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…de9cbacked No | 5c | 200.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…925cbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…746ebacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 7c | 192.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 184.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8576…ab39backed No | 7c | 160.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 32c | 153.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 35c | 149.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…4987backed No | 13c | 146.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 70c | 143.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Yes | 32c | 126$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 114.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 106.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…3376backed No | 10c | 103.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ee…88c1backed No | 12c | 101.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…29ddbacked No | 12c | 81.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6b…8557backed Yes | 35c | 71.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 30c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 26c | 58.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…c3d4backed Yes | 40c | 57.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 32c | 31.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8028backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f3…c08bbacked No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026?this page
- Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.