Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfee2a14f6a4745db7e85a2780d8b33776a763a9a09374b9b55f85a25d447691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked No | 1c | 5,144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 1c | 1,416$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…6802backed No | 2c | 1,383$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 2c | 567.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…bda4backed No | 4c | 427.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 32c | 401.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 45c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.07 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…3805backed Yes | 47c | 349.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 25c | 333.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 73c | 300$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 54c | 282$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…d63ebacked No | 31c | 207$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…e997backed No | 31c | 193$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…d1f4backed No | 31c | 189$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e49…360cbacked No | 31c | 187$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4459…4f6abacked No | 31c | 183$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…60a1backed No | 31c | 182$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…7b41backed Yes | 44c | 173.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 23c | 165.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3f…bdd3backed No | 31c | 151$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 54c | 132.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…4d3abacked No | 19c | 128.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…8966backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +128%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 38c | 95.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed No | 54c | 93.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd89…734cbacked Yes | 69c | 93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…8828backed Yes | 69c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a63…3be5backed Yes | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…f778backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…16f0backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…a7f9backed Yes | 69c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ee…d204backed Yes | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…3347backed Yes | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…06dfbacked Yes | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…45bebacked Yes | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 33c | 83.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 82.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 22c | 81.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…ffe4backed Yes | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…1f9ebacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd3…f244backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…60c2backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…15c8backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6b…8557backed Yes | 40c | 75.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…e1d8backed Yes | 65c | 61.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 54c | 55.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 26c | 52.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…c3d4backed Yes | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 40.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8028backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1902…02d0backed No | 68c | 28.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed No | 52c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 53c | 19.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 28, 2026?this page
- Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.