World Politics · resolved market
Will Johannes Kaiser come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71244f94c47691253030070b02c58f6d44251fa6e97d35aab61f19576321cc98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 67c | 2,171$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf922…e9c7backed Yes | 69c | 1,137$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 33c | 1,111$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.34 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.99 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b9…3ca2backed Yes | 67c | 973.24$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed No | 33c | 838.88$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 69c | 833.94$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 44c | 774.62$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…56a3backed Yes | 67c | 758.99$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…f5fbbacked Yes | 69c | 526$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e57…1006backed Yes | 9c | 492.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 35c | 491.11$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.68 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes | 56c | 479.54$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…e29fbacked Yes | 67c | 442.98$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…a517backed No | 48c | 441.39$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…1652backed Yes | 65c | 432.61$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 21c | 432.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 65c | 391.19$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 341.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 33c | 330.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.36 | 188 | 30.3%57 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…6ccebacked Yes | 71c | 287$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 234.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 66c | 227.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 55c | 222$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 67c | 216$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 16c | 212.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed No | 39c | 204.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…6b6abacked Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…b019backed Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 63c | 163.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yes | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2881…52dabacked Yes | 66c | 150.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 54c | 118.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 64c | 109.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 33c | 107.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 31c | 82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked Yes | 66c | 81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…93f1backed Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…d58cbacked No | 42c | 78.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 48c | 75.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 46c | 54.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Yes | 67c | 52.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ef…1dd4backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…bd97backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…a85bbacked Yes | 65c | 49.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 62c | 48.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…3cc4backed Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…54e1backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8ee8backed Yes | 67c | 37.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…6fe2backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…9210backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ae…b9a0backed Yes | 68c | 29.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…607cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…7ba8backed Yes | 65c | 26.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 995 | 17.2%171 W · 824 L | -149.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…b6f8backed Yes | 65c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…6cf2backed Yes | 71c | 23.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed Yes | 66c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…4b0bbacked Yes | 67c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Francesca Muñoz come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Jeannette Jara come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.