World Politics · resolved market
Will Evelyn Matthei come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59355fb7f95e49fd6820ca6dc3afd7f136724d5e8007e890984620a82abe3a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,153$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,136$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,180$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.97 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 13c | 865.04$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 591.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 16c | 545.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…93f1backed Yes | 64c | 542.55$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 60c | 436.56$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…bd97backed Yes | 20c | 399.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 8c | 386.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 80c | 386.03$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 20c | 386.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.82 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 5c | 312.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 75c | 284.35$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 31c | 255.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…1717backed Yes | 17c | 241.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de8…66f5backed Yes | 21c | 235.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 29c | 215.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 44c | 165.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…8844backed Yes | 14c | 162.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 25c | 161.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…d58cbacked Yes | 23c | 142.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…b622backed Yes | 56c | 117.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…2c80backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…e29fbacked Yes | 77c | 103.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…dd12backed Yes | 22c | 101.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…d693backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed Yes | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 84.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Yes | 65c | 80.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…b9f2backed Yes | 24c | 79.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…ec49backed Yes | 24c | 79.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…6b64backed Yes | 25c | 77.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 57c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…0974backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…1a01backed Yes | 45c | 46.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…fe42backed Yes | 24c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…dc6ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…c34fbacked No | 80c | 31.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Francesca Muñoz come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will Jeannette Jara come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.