World Politics · resolved market
Will Franco Parisi come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c881c1086af2973e00bd7cde3e5dd6b6ade38105d379643125605cda393662d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 8c | 7,178$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,590.63 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 58c | 4,847$2,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.92 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.91 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 5c | 2,570$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.65 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 8c | 1,088$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,025$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 12c | 1,021$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 5c | 924.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e57…1006backed Yes | 8c | 845.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…93f1backed Yes | 65c | 772.68$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…0014backed Yes | 10c | 501.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 30c | 438.62$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.52 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 4c | 405.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.46 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 43c | 374.6$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.63 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 74c | 369.06$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…7a09backed Yes | 15c | 333.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 76c | 320.34$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 70c | 271.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4c…44e2backed No | 40c | 212.06$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8184…01f6backed Yes | 76c | 198.73$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…d58cbacked Yes | 8c | 198.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 6c | 187.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…e411backed Yes | 8c | 168.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +543.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 39c | 164$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…5325backed Yes | 17c | 91.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 76c | 81.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…f92ebacked Yes | 17c | 74.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +175%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…f2fbbacked Yes | 22c | 60.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…6b64backed Yes | 39c | 33.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 74c | 14.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Franco Parisi come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Francesca Muñoz come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.