Fifa International · resolved market
Will United States win on 2025-11-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a279ca49b67edf967199ae9413902b25d132cb35a317336ad5d4c6ec348834e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 59c | 30,000$17,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,696.87 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 41c | 25,333$10,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,001.15 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 40c | 3,308$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.24 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 40c | 1,735$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 61c | 1,016$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.86 | 163 | 31.9%52 W · 111 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 37c | 989.69$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.85 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 60c | 888$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.8 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 46c | 775$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.99 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 73c | 757$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.41 | 326 | 56.1%183 W · 143 L | +29.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 603.63$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.22 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Yes | 41c | 482$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 41c | 381.58$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…a4eebacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc973…49d4backed Yes | 41c | 340$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 41c | 290.24$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.24 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 38c | 282.74$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 36c | 257.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…7212backed Yes | 34c | 200$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 39c | 193.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 41c | 190$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 259 | 54.8%142 W · 117 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 34c | 187$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.84 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 29c | 139.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 63c | 134.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 57c | 119.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…f682backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 60c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 63c | 95.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 178 | 51.1%91 W · 87 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 56c | 94.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 194 | 61.3%119 W · 75 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…4644backed Yes | 39c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 29c | 76.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 40c | 61.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 218 | 40.8%89 W · 129 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 59c | 54.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…66a8backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 59c | 44.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…9038backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 57c | 33.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 459 | 49.5%227 W · 232 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 397 | 49.9%198 W · 199 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6654…5952backed Yes | 40c | 31.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +197%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 58c | 27.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 56c | 18.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United States win on 2025-11-15?this page
- Will Paraguay win on 2025-11-15?No won
- Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.