Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay win on 2025-11-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xece94508d6d16f47d5aa564599fa78a55af9d73b1e7b04fb7c4344f1407b1e06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 2,111$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.18 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 1,064$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 347.65$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 30c | 281.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…d560backed Yes | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 69c | 229.59$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 32c | 168.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 259 | 54.8%142 W · 117 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 67c | 89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 17c | 65.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…6ec9backed Yes | 30c | 62.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…9450backed Yes | 34c | 61.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…2239backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…f38cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 66c | 45.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd440…3e3cbacked Yes | 24c | 41.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay win on 2025-11-15?this page
- Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?No won
- Will United States win on 2025-11-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.