Fifa International · resolved market
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedb73842a72930ad5ab267f5ce1ca70ae25f60c2ac64493cf1abd7a24ec9fef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 61c | 4,517$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.57 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 32c | 1,280$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.45 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 1,152$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.07 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 883.94$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.93 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…a4eebacked Yes | 58c | 344.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 70c | 292.43$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 134.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 130.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 52c | 71.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…3934backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 68c | 33.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?this page
- Will Paraguay win on 2025-11-15?No won
- Will United States win on 2025-11-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.