Music · resolved market
Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aeb38bca427070dd1da061eaa60bed5a462351e85625e27083d5dbc5401b6ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45f5…29adbacked Yes | 1c | 7,081$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…87ccbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4028…7de4backed Yes | 1c | 3,793$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,643$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…315bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,970$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…f48dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,713$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 7c | 2,632$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,297$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2c…a874backed Yes | 0c | 2,284$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…29a4backed Yes | 13c | 2,281$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…dcc0backed Yes | 10c | 2,138$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…a042backed Yes | 7c | 2,009$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 1c | 1,769$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 8c | 1,578$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 20c | 1,195$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…26c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,175$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…1846backed Yes | 2c | 1,075$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 23c | 978.26$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…876cbacked Yes | 20c | 960$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb303…0aabbacked Yes | 6c | 840.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 17c | 800$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 19c | 700$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Yes | 17c | 650$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Yes | 10c | 510$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Yes | 15c | 438.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…aebdbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…e1ddbacked Yes | 4c | 412.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…92a1backed Yes | 12c | 408.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked Yes | 17c | 400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 7c | 380$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…8cc7backed Yes | 5c | 366.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…d7f2backed Yes | 9c | 308$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d10…a42bbacked Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed Yes | 11c | 228.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 218.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…27e1backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…7ceebacked Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…f598backed Yes | 7c | 141.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…3352backed Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e2…126bbacked Yes | 19c | 107.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c56…505cbacked Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed Yes | 23c | 100.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…f6c8backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…d4debacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc68…bf42backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…c084backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…8131backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?this page
- Will APT. by Rosé and Bruno Mars be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will Abracadabra by Lady Gaga be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will BAILE INoLVIDABLE by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER by Billie Eilish be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?Yes won
- Will Don’t Say You Love Me by Jin be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will EoO by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will La Plena by W Sound be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will NUEVAYoL by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
- Will VOY A LLeVARTE PA PR by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.