Tennis · resolved market
Fritz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2152bc9ebe20b80eefb0d1932e4058266f8a5a0a9886adeeddee1d4046cc5a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 0c | 3,921$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 905.05$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 688.99$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.41 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 282.67$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…8d89backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 261$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Under 2.5 | 5c | 252.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.04 | 83 | 13.3%11 W · 72 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Over 2.5 | 18c | 177.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over 2.5 | 59c | 124.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Under 2.5 | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…e16cbacked Over 2.5 | 28c | 97.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over 2.5 | 40c | 81.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 72.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 50.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 49.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 48.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 42.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…7f7cbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 40.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Over 2.5 | 40c | 32.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under 2.5 | 47c | 32.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…115fbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over 2.5 | 35c | 30.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Under 2.5 | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de MinaurMinaur won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs MinaurMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.