Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e174c9b006d8b33e37c3ed945ce786a31e47d7365d046f2954ed7291fd9997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Fritz, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc933…5366backed Minaur | 36c | 453.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Minaur | 41c | 278.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Minaur | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Minaur | 56c | 149.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Fritz | 64c | 144.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Fritz | 51c | 138.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Fritz | 64c | 134.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fritz | 51c | 128.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…d0f6backed Fritz | 69c | 105$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Minaur | 38c | 104.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Fritz | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed Fritz | 63c | 78.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked Minaur | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Minaur | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…0a93backed Fritz | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Fritz | 61c | 40.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Fritz | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7426…7c1cbacked Minaur | 56c | 31.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Fritz | 57c | 30.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…defbbacked Fritz | 64c | 29.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Fritz | 79c | 25.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed Fritz | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Minaurthis page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de MinaurMinaur won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Fritz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.