Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2fd5bb672e97bfd02a755cdbd8319a8e6665665d7d7c2f5052425342b61bfec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 40c | 22,730$9,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,676.77 | 277 | 50.9%141 W · 136 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 58c | 18,550$10,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,752.31 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…918fbacked Under | 62c | 11,674$7,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,233.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 76c | 6,505$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.04 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 6,443$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.12 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 6,316$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.35 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 66c | 5,069$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.92 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 61c | 2,167$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.34 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 62c | 1,615$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.16 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 1,488$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…53b3backed Over | 75c | 1,337$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Over | 75c | 1,332$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.1 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 7c | 1,141$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 1,086$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.7 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 19c | 928.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.06 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 56c | 819.3$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.67 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over | 54c | 736.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.52 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 32c | 643.57$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 63c | 632.15$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…d438backed Over | 63c | 616.78$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 46c | 609.87$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.71 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 470.38$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 43c | 460.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 49c | 428.2$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 73c | 410.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…7247backed Under | 54c | 360.84$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 45c | 338.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 73c | 323.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…e46cbacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.01 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Under | 34c | 295.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…e98fbacked Over | 68c | 268.58$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 37c | 240.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 220.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…1bb8backed Under | 47c | 212.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 62c | 209.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Over | 71c | 139.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Under | 38c | 124.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 15c | 89.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6ae2backed Over | 64c | 86.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 85.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…1e85backed Under | 56c | 83.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 58c | 82.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…630cbacked Over | 43c | 82.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 50c | 79.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…027cbacked Under | 39c | 77.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 39c | 76.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 71c | 70.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 58c | 69.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 43c | 62.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Over | 62c | 54.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Under | 36c | 53.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 60c | 44.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 42c | 44.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 67c | 43.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 129 | 68.2%88 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…a1cdbacked Over | 65c | 42.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 43c | 39.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 50c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 61c | 23.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Under | 48c | 21.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.