Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc4331e1b462912f00a195eb69d0cb2b61db6f90da5a094edb51ae344067a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 7,390$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,483.26 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 5,256$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.06 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 46c | 4,291$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 3,694$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.31 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Over | 42c | 3,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.99 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 2,405$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.44 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 2,319$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.64 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 2,050$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.59 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 50c | 2,009$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.96 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 53c | 1,881$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.56 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 55c | 909.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.16 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 45c | 861.94$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.87 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 47c | 849.34$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.19 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 834.52$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.69 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 54c | 723.08$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.13 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +13.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 721.27$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.61 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 53c | 684$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.48 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 66c | 604$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.36 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 42c | 417$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.66 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 46c | 406.15$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 54c | 401.87$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.86 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 34c | 324.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 223 | 56.5%126 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 34c | 108$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed Under | 44c | 89.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 50c | 80.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 53c | 69.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 66.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…3642backed Over | 53c | 66.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a53…70a1backed Over | 55c | 62.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 46c | 55.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 45c | 52.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Under | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 54c | 45.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed Over | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 174 | 64.9%113 W · 61 L | +16.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 56c | 37.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…f21cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Under | 53c | 33.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec8…4143backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Under | 47c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 142 | 65.5%93 W · 49 L | +14.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 64c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…85b4backed Over | 53c | 19.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.