Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b3d0a0135b46b5083290220e47e6707ba5bf3cb7882cc448bc4bbc17d243f21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 10,992$2,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,433.65 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 80c | 9,000$7,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,195.52 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 33c | 3,515$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.64 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 78c | 2,351$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.19 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 34c | 1,035$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.1 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 7c | 1,014$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 71c | 682.46$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.76 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 573.41$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.12 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 66c | 467.42$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.81 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 30c | 315$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.42 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 299.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.32 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 35c | 268$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.48 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…1e85backed Under | 70c | 128.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 68c | 124$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 21c | 110.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…85efbacked Under | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…7031backed Over | 79c | 89.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 69c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 30c | 58.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Under | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 69c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 30c | 43.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…7a49backed Under | 70c | 33.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 68c | 30.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 40c | 28.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 27.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…6031backed Under | 70c | 27.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Under | 70c | 17.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 16.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.