TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Hawks, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,049,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,121,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,049,201 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 922 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Raptors59c103,304$61,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,965.771,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hawks42c58,082$24,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,394.4987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Raptors56c50,298$28,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,098.2112147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Hawks43c50,000$21,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,5009263%58 W · 34 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hawks28c44,213$12,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,200.231,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hawks44c42,035$18,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,495.4440446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Hawks41c39,281$16,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,105.027941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf924…45c1backed Raptors58c36,710$21,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,418.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hawks40c25,267$10,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,106.8672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd111…aaedbacked Raptors60c21,665$12,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,665.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Raptors79c20,323$15,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,328.1727865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc5e…b679backed Hawks41c19,512$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hawks19c19,299$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.981,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Raptors56c17,668$9,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,773.921,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors61c16,393$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,393.4476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Raptors57c16,000$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,88021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Hawks44c16,000$7,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,04017861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors71c15,488$11,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,468.415,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks9c15,291$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.573,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58d4…08d2backed Raptors60c11,523$6,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,609.21850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Hawks40c11,200$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4409343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed Hawks13c10,708$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.2910961.5%67 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Hawks17c10,275$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.5134227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Hawks43c10,261$4,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,412.230845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hawks40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.881,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Hawks30c9,976$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Raptors60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.3311654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Hawks40c7,028$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,811.216942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Raptors56c7,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,08015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Hawks43c7,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.9914243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks40c6,835$2,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Raptors74c6,600$4,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72222458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors59c6,525$3,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.661,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hawks2c5,738$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.761,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Raptors59c5,555$3,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Hawks40c5,400$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.831,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Raptors58c5,223$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.8415055.3%83 W · 67 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks14c5,210$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.241,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Hawks12c5,168$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60021143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b3b…a84abacked Hawks28c5,041$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.942462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…ec21backed Hawks42c5,000$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa414…18febacked Raptors60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0002100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Hawks40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00026544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Raptors57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.8816641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Raptors79c4,755$3,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.281,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Raptors62c4,659$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.9959347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Hawks38c4,648$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.6341652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Hawks43c4,619$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.1747751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Raptors60c4,418$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.9778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…7aa1backed Raptors57c4,300$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.941070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+91.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Raptors63c4,155$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.3916657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Raptors75c4,141$3,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.0635447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1062…ba59backed Raptors57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.97850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Raptors57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.8718142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks39c3,874$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.753,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks20c3,748$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors66c3,698$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.1676850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa31…c537backed Hawks43c3,600$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5481650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239b…964abacked Raptors60c3,479$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.4410059%59 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Hawks4c3,467$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3465218.4%120 W · 532 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors60c3,451$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.282,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hawks10c3,371$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawks22c3,081$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.021,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks43c3,075$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Hawks43c3,068$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.358740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb461…76cfbacked Raptors57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2902462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…1dccbacked Hawks44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3202339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe294…f689backed Hawks42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8200…83d4backed Raptors59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc696…2fcabacked Hawks40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.23per pick65cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Raptors56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9912657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe659…57bbbacked Raptors60c2,884$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.719552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8681…cbb4backed Raptors57c2,800$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hawks43c2,791$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Raptors70c2,656$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.0813959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Raptors60c2,583$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.3328649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x494e…c549backed Hawks41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02511836.4%43 W · 75 L-12.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc127…66e9backed Raptors60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00011657.8%67 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Raptors57c2,440$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.21827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfd02…6bb5backed Raptors58c2,403$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.141154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Hawks8c2,400$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.738239.5%151 W · 231 L+35.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Raptors60c2,286$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.517554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors64c2,169$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.281,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb88…31d4backed Hawks41c2,073$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Raptors59c2,001$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.4114945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6870…5826backed Hawks37c2,000$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.554853.8%295 W · 253 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked Hawks41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8201936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Hawks17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc07a…fb98backed Raptors60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c1…cba5backed Hawks42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Hawks43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hawks18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Hawks43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked Raptors56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.995541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Hawks8c1,943$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4450241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Raptors57c1,930$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.9247043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Raptors57c1,860$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.83250%16 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xface…2115backed Hawks43c1,800$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7741838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f7…5b3ebacked Raptors56c1,795$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.779038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.