NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae7e6e550fa386023a0c8f600dc1d9185d7b3ec8d687e46db987cf903df7e9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raptors | 51c | 9,569$4,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700.23 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 49c | 7,185$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,523.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 49c | 6,238$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Raptors | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Raptors | 51c | 4,208$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.92 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Hawks | 49c | 3,522$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.54 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Hawks | 50c | 3,030$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…c9b0backed Raptors | 51c | 2,033$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Raptors | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 50c | 999.99$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Raptors | 51c | 424.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 49c | 424.66$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Hawks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Hawks | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Raptors | 50c | 333$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Hawks | 50c | 316.42$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Hawks | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Hawks | 49c | 224.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Hawks | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Hawks | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Raptors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Raptors | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Hawks | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…3ed6backed Raptors | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Raptors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Hawks | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Raptors | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Raptors | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 50c | 53.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Hawks | 51c | 48.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Raptors | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Raptors | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Raptors | 51c | 44.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Raptors | 51c | 43.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 57c | 39.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Hawks | 36c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Hawks | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Raptors | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Hawks | 50c | 29.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Raptors | 52c | 27.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 49c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)this page
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds Over 5.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.