NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b5da3aa65bd99d933a28bb2aeb3001736653ad3e66e997b919f4faff091b512

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,586 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	5,261$2,515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,514.85	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under	52c	5,000$2,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,400	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	48c	3,088$1,468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,467.59	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab0c…3026backed Under	51c	1,999$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$979.6	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	58c	888.05$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372.34	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	44c	358$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.52	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Under	60c	330$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	46c	290$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.4	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	54c	290$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.4	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	119	45.4%54 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed Under	57c	162$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.66	77	53.2%41 W · 36 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under	57c	140$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.2	94	46.8%44 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	56c	121.41$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.42	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Under	57c	106$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.58	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	40c	95.89$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under	56c	83.93$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.93	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4970…21f6backed Under	57c	83$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.69	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Under	53c	79$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.13	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	46c	64.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	40c	63.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	57c	54$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed Under	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Under	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	96	53.1%51 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Over	43c	48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacc…23c6backed Over	46c	48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-3.6wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under	57c	42.55$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.3	45	80%36 W · 9 L	+12.1wins	+0.27per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb113…5646backed Over	43c	42.55$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Over	43c	42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6191…e505backed Over	43c	41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0b5f…b793backed Over	43c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72df…42f6backed Over	43c	39$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Under	57c	39$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.77	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over	43c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6203…5192backed Over	43c	35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19fe…dbd8backed Over	43c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	49c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc727…adc2backed Under	56c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.32	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a14…8610backed Under	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a59…e94cbacked Under	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00f6…c5d2backed Over	43c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf21a…0751backed Over	43c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+4.0wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x888b…8f3fbacked Over	47c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Over	47c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Under	73c	19.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Under	56c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event