NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc732088b2324b5b04fe2568ddf82ef0a2891c49b3da1ebd427709fccdd367524

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,240 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	4,797$2,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,303.11	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,081.63	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	56c	2,863$1,603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,259.74	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	50c	2,006$1,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.94	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Over	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29a…8776backed Under	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e27…3cccbacked Under	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x088b…bce1backed Over	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb482…e3ecbacked Under	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d30…c94fbacked Over	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over	47c	2,000$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.87	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	45c	1,919$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.67	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	51c	1,105$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.45	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under	53c	896.79$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.49	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	805$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.45	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over	49c	800$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Over	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	669$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.03	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	48c	632.9$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.91	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	46c	399.98$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.99	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	52c	138$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.24	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	46c	131.06$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over	48c	128.19$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.64	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under	50c	124$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	36c	104.08$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.68	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…5646backed Over	17c	90.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	63c	87.96$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.42	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Under	53c	85$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.95	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	48c	77.91$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.11	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	76c	75.91$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf232…4fc6backed Under	75c	60$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	127	66.9%85 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	48c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	317	54.6%173 W · 144 L	+16.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	47c	53.54$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	47c	50.01$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under	47c	47.41$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.13	98	50%49 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	49c	39.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd645…d9f0backed Under	56c	35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	25	48%12 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	52c	28.23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.55	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f8…256ebacked Under	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Under	53c	26.66$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.53	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	55c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.35	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	53c	21.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under	80c	15.4$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.14	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event