NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e56bc93391c56c82c8bbb6fb21756ff008b7c59e4f529ed1fc84883cf259802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 49c | 1,339$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,150$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.31 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 44c | 892.86$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.86 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 51c | 451.68$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.32 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 376.31$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.63 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…4c5ebacked Under | 52c | 134$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 99.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…1085backed Over | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…02d6backed Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 50c | 41.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 44c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 52c | 29.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…18e9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5this page
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds Over 5.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.