NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf3c8fa509712b68a62023f86d42cab26b61ca18035cef0ebe887f814048a970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 711.55$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 48c | 693.99$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.87 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 576$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.28 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 53c | 564$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.92 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 430$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…f721backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 134.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 56c | 89.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…5646backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 127 | 66.9%85 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…6d5cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5this page
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds Over 5.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.