Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb3c51d5973a0cd281678455ca730d1e162f5fbfa0d44be88748bd536f08d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd63c…9f94backed Yes | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…7331backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3285…745fbacked No | 7c | 1,005$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +338.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 59c | 579.09$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 24c | 553$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 66c | 490$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 18c | 483$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 76c | 461$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 76c | 446$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 24c | 354$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 48c | 315$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…c151backed No | 7c | 257.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f3…0230backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked No | 6c | 168.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 9c | 164.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd7…9be6backed No | 15c | 134.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 31c | 121$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 115.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 46c | 106.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…229abacked Yes | 70c | 100.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 35c | 94.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…a12fbacked No | 29c | 76.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 78c | 48.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 55c | 39.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 48c | 30.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…0653backed Yes | 71c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.