TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Nets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Netsof Bucks, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,586,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,571,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,586,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 981 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Nets47c518,222$241,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277,063.787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Bucks0c209,044$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.7611033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Bucks46c197,435$90,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,292.466248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Bucks53c148,400$78,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,65229245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd421…7155backed Bucks0c94,006$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.016142.6%26 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Bucks44c74,425$33,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,028.7620744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Nets48c50,787$24,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,662.9963746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Bucks55c50,000$27,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,5008750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nets59c38,471$22,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,701.171,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bucks42c35,764$15,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,091.123,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Nets62c35,590$22,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,524.1370147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Bucks53c32,000$16,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,96016039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bucks56c31,702$17,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,614.291,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks29c31,332$8,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,965.831,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Bucks54c30,779$16,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,527.729938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks52c25,108$13,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,0561,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bucks53c24,258$12,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,856.7654539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks30c23,015$6,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,804.151,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0b…18cdbacked Bucks38c22,422$8,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,517.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Bucks56c21,656$12,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,127.4616346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nets46c21,091$9,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,403.331,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Nets76c20,866$15,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,989.4742645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Bucks54c20,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,80049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Bucks62c19,989$12,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,429.0148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Bucks25c19,915$4,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,891.015048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Nets43c19,238$8,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,965.3932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Bucks39c17,397$6,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,789.661181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick54cpaid+46.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Bucks57c17,091$9,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7427243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Bucks53c15,670$8,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,304.9417646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Nets46c15,558$7,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,402.0190650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bucks11c15,497$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.11,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks54c14,315$7,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,740.074,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Bucks53c13,633$7,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,225.3320948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Bucks53c13,000$6,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8908839.8%35 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Nets44c12,948$5,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,250.660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bucks38c12,928$4,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,912.8238434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Nets39c12,771$4,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,790.2811335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Nets76c12,520$9,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.051,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets44c12,159$5,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,766.114,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Bucks56c12,108$6,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,817.642348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Nets76c11,514$8,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,806.176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Bucks53c9,419$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,992.2721549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bucks32c9,205$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.932,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Bucks53c9,159$4,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,854.2728643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Bucks41c8,767$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.0613544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bucks11c8,681$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.8283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Nets45c8,222$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,483.3417055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Bucks57c8,051$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600.4821350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bucks26c7,700$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0021,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Bucks50c6,958$3,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478.7732846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Bucks33c6,943$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.9124937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Bucks33c6,756$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.85633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4162…0d18backed Nets54c6,705$3,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.246848.5%33 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Nets44c6,585$2,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,687.6340350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Bucks56c6,552$3,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.3820843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Nets61c6,329$3,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.3827865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bucks60c6,276$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,777.42,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2402,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Nets38c5,956$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,680.335547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Bucks28c5,828$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.827638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Bucks39c5,647$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.1911945.4%54 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks54c5,643$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.583,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Bucks53c5,605$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.6522137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks53c5,300$2,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,811.792,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Bucks53c5,189$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.411843.2%51 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Bucks55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Nets46c5,000$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,68514244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Nets43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.9958951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Nets64c4,948$3,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.455139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6101…23bcbacked Bucks41c4,705$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.25453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x155b…f29dbacked Bucks53c4,581$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-65.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Nets44c4,500$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52065939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Bucks48c4,475$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.478846.6%41 W · 47 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bucks31c4,372$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.875,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks13c4,270$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.841,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Nets44c4,217$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.3286641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Bucks52c4,001$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.3543348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Nets47c3,988$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.5382442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Bucks25c3,955$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.910743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd37…9f53backed Nets44c3,945$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks51c3,855$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.095,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bucks12c3,838$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.1281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Bucks42c3,704$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.7213534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b3…8ef3backed Bucks10c3,669$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.52010%2 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Bucks47c3,538$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.811040%44 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Bucks49c3,489$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.216450%32 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bucks45c3,187$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.261,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Nets44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.9643438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Bucks56c2,931$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.110451%53 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Bucks49c2,880$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.8711738.5%45 W · 72 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed Bucks56c2,814$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.6713435.8%48 W · 86 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Bucks53c2,730$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.931455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Nets47c2,713$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.0529849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Nets44c2,550$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.93540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Bucks55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Bucks27c2,434$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.9512649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bucks38c2,357$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.522,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c8…90cbbacked Bucks57c2,342$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.475244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Nets46c2,299$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.5324841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed Bucks54c2,249$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.532343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.