TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Washington State Cougars vs. Oregon State Beavers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oregon State Beaversof Washington State Cougars, Oregon State Beavers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,895 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38c2…d3a7backed Oregon State Beavers32c21,661$6,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,713.816056.9%91 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Washington State Cougars65c14,474$9,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,337.075,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Washington State Cougars0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024121.2%51 W · 190 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+299%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Oregon State Beavers50c9,939$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,934.825145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Washington State Cougars49c8,244$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,040.0338351.7%198 W · 185 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Washington State Cougars65c6,113$3,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,987.971,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Oregon State Beavers56c4,952$2,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.213237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Washington State Cougars66c2,894$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.632,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Washington State Cougars50c2,138$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.1360%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd750…e32cbacked Oregon State Beavers49c1,900$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Oregon State Beavers27c1,855$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.4614027.1%38 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Washington State Cougars30c1,806$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.831,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Washington State Cougars62c1,719$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.293,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Washington State Cougars7c1,542$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.943910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Washington State Cougars16c1,528$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.182,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2e…9e01backed Oregon State Beavers43c1,456$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Washington State Cougars56c1,216$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.322,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Oregon State Beavers42c1,195$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Washington State Cougars54c1,101$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.8255840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Oregon State Beavers46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e5…9401backed Washington State Cougars49c1,031$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009525.3%24 W · 71 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Oregon State Beavers35c916.74$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.841,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Washington State Cougars14c727.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.931363.7%5 W · 131 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Washington State Cougars59c676.34$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40048462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Washington State Cougars56c657.1$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.5899848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington State Cougars59c638$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.422,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Washington State Cougars55c509.95$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.675556.4%31 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington State Cougars61c476.26$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.633,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Washington State Cougars61c424.85$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.936248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oregon State Beavers34c389.22$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.245,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c03…811ebacked Oregon State Beavers48c371.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.122740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Oregon State Beavers31c354.37$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.351,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington State Cougars43c345.24$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.331,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1412…15d5backed Washington State Cougars72c300$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.041546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Oregon State Beavers7c258.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.074,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b22…107fbacked Washington State Cougars60c251.67$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512556%14 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Washington State Cougars55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.544146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Oregon State Beavers46c240$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.61,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Washington State Cougars63c226$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.372248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon State Beavers37c224$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.161,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Washington State Cougars56c220.54$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12345351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Oregon State Beavers28c217.69$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8287047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84a…126abacked Washington State Cougars33c217.26$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f95…6972backed Oregon State Beavers44c207.84$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.841844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Oregon State Beavers47c200.02$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3410846.3%50 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ce…dd2ebacked Washington State Cougars55c169.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.231428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed Oregon State Beavers53c163.72$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.957100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+73.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb19…122ebacked Washington State Cougars57c140.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Washington State Cougars64c135.39$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.838345.4%174 W · 209 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Washington State Cougars77c129.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001758.8%10 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Washington State Cougars16c125.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1819332.1%62 W · 131 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Washington State Cougars36c122$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.392,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon State Beavers32c121$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.283,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Washington State Cougars51c120.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.252,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Washington State Cougars66c115.14$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1768254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Oregon State Beavers42c111.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9517647.2%83 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Washington State Cougars52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick55cpaid-78.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4546…a3f2backed Washington State Cougars60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon State Beavers45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Washington State Cougars61c98.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Oregon State Beavers76c85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.251,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Washington State Cougars55c84.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43c…ccd5backed Oregon State Beavers45c84.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.581154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c2a…e715backed Oregon State Beavers45c84.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+54.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Washington State Cougars65c79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1413651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae9…5b36backed Oregon State Beavers14c75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.55141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Washington State Cougars55c71.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.172133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed Washington State Cougars45c66.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Washington State Cougars45c66.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8619138.2%73 W · 118 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Oregon State Beavers28c60.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.713455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33b9…ed3abacked Oregon State Beavers26c58.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.424037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7abc…87ebbacked Washington State Cougars36c55.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Washington State Cougars58c52.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.651,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1c9…89cfbacked Oregon State Beavers42c51.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.577100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Washington State Cougars55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.526848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Oregon State Beavers44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Oregon State Beavers53c45.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.584240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Washington State Cougars54c45.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6815733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd9d…1ba2backed Oregon State Beavers48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeefb…d11fbacked Oregon State Beavers30c41.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.851827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Washington State Cougars61c40.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252850%14 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe974…bb41backed Washington State Cougars78c38.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee26…3798backed Washington State Cougars53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Washington State Cougars69c37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5231666.1%209 W · 107 L+24.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7297…814ebacked Washington State Cougars56c35.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76e7…1872backed Washington State Cougars40c35.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Oregon State Beavers46c35.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1230945.6%141 W · 168 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf828…00a5backed Washington State Cougars40c34.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbe…993abacked Oregon State Beavers30c32.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.966154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Oregon State Beavers37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.964658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Washington State Cougars56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.852353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Oregon State Beavers36c29.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.951,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…abb4backed Oregon State Beavers49c29.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.921957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oregon State Beavers44c28.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.032,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Washington State Cougars80c27.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2318844.7%84 W · 104 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x500e…0faabacked Washington State Cougars56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152250%11 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e9…9d74backed Washington State Cougars56c25.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08be…a9edbacked Oregon State Beavers44c22.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bd…6504backed Washington State Cougars59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.